General

The Future of File Formats: What's Coming and What's Dying

Published Mar 19, 2026 6 min read By ChangeThisFile Team

Quick Answer

BMP, AVI, Flash/SWF, and WMA are effectively dead. AVIF and AV1 are the clear winners of the next-gen codec wars. JPEG XL is technically superior but faces an uncertain future without Chrome support. The overarching trend: everything moves toward open, royalty-free, web-native formats.

Every few years, a new file format promises to replace the incumbents. Most fail — not because they're worse, but because the installed base of existing tools, workflows, and habits resists change. The formats that do succeed tend to share common traits: open specification, royalty-free licensing, backing from major platform vendors, and a clear technical advantage that justifies the migration cost.

This guide categorizes current formats into three buckets: dying (declining usage, limited future), rising (growing adoption, strong fundamentals), and uncertain (technically promising but adoption unclear). If you're making decisions about which formats to invest in — for archival, web delivery, or content pipelines — this is the landscape.

Dying Formats

These formats have peaked and are in irreversible decline. They still work — files in these formats will be readable for years — but no new content should be created in them.

Image: BMP

BMP (Bitmap Image File) stores uncompressed pixel data. A 1080p photo is 6MB as BMP versus 300KB as JPEG. There's no use case where BMP is the right choice — PNG matches it for lossless quality at 3-10x smaller files. BMP persists only in legacy Windows applications and embedded systems where decompression speed matters more than size. If you encounter BMP files, convert to PNG for lossless or JPG for lossy.

Video: AVI, FLV, WMV

AVI (1992) — Microsoft's original video container lacks support for modern codecs, variable frame rates, multiple audio tracks, subtitles, and chapters. It's still generated by some screen recorders and webcams but should be immediately converted. AVI to MP4 is the standard migration path.

FLV (2003) — Adobe Flash Video was the web video format from 2005-2012 (YouTube used FLV until 2010). Flash Player's death in 2020 killed FLV. No browser plays it natively. Convert to MP4 and archive.

WMV (1999) — Windows Media Video was Microsoft's proprietary video format. It never gained traction outside Windows and has no advantages over H.264 MP4 in any dimension. macOS and Linux can't play it natively. WMV to MP4 is the one-way migration.

Audio: WMA

WMA (1999) — Windows Media Audio was Microsoft's competitor to MP3 and AAC. It had a brief period of relevance when Microsoft pushed it through the Zune and Windows Media Player, but it never achieved cross-platform support. No streaming service uses it. No phone defaults to it. Convert to MP3 or AAC for modern compatibility.

Other: Flash/SWF, DOC/XLS/PPT

Flash/SWF — Dead since December 31, 2020. No browser support. Adobe actively blocks Flash content. Only accessible through Ruffle (open-source emulator) or archived standalone players. An entire generation of web games, animations, and interactive content is effectively locked in an unplayable format.

Binary Office formats (DOC, XLS, PPT) — Microsoft Office hasn't defaulted to these since Office 2007. They're technically still supported but offer no advantages over DOCX/XLSX/PPTX and can't be fully parsed by modern tools. Convert legacy DOC files to DOCX — the conversion is lossless and gains better cross-platform support.

Rising Formats

These formats have strong technical foundations, growing ecosystem support, and clear adoption trajectories.

AVIF: The Next JPEG

AVIF uses AV1 compression for still images and achieves 50% smaller files than JPEG at equivalent visual quality. It supports HDR (10/12-bit), wide color gamut (BT.2100), alpha transparency, and both lossy and lossless modes. Browser support: Chrome 85+ (2020), Firefox 93+ (2021), Safari 16.4+ (2023).

AVIF's main weakness is encoding speed — 10-50x slower than JPEG encoding. This doesn't matter for batch-processed web images but rules it out for real-time camera capture. AVIF will likely replace JPEG as the default web image format by 2028-2030 as encoding speed improves and hardware accelerators ship.

Start converting now: JPG to AVIF | PNG to AVIF | WebP to AVIF

AV1: The Next H.264

AV1 (Alliance for Open Media, 2018) is a royalty-free video codec that matches or beats H.265/HEVC in compression efficiency. Netflix, YouTube, and Meta already use AV1 for streaming. Hardware decoders ship in Apple M3+ chips, Intel 12th gen+, Samsung Exynos 2200+, and MediaTek Dimensity 9000+.

The main blocker has been encoding speed — AV1 encoding is painfully slow without hardware. But hardware encoders are now shipping, and SVT-AV1 (Intel's open-source encoder) has improved software encoding speed by 10x since 2020. By 2028, AV1 will likely be the default streaming codec, with H.264 as the compatibility fallback. Convert existing video to AV1 for next-gen delivery.

Data: Parquet, Arrow, and SQLite

Apache Parquet (2013) — Columnar storage format for analytical datasets. A 1GB CSV file typically compresses to 100-200MB as Parquet with dramatically faster query performance. Every major data tool (Pandas, DuckDB, Spark, BigQuery) supports it. CSV to Parquet is becoming standard for data pipelines.

Apache Arrow (2016) — In-memory columnar format for zero-copy data interchange between systems. Arrow is becoming the universal "data bus" — tools that speak Arrow can exchange data without serialization overhead.

SQLite — Not new (2000), but the realization that SQLite is a file format, not just a database, is growing. A .sqlite file is a portable, queryable, self-contained database that works on every platform. SQLite to CSV for data extraction.

Uncertain Formats

JPEG XL: The Best Format Nobody Can Use

JPEG XL (ISO 18181, 2022) is objectively the most capable image format ever created. It handles lossy, lossless, HDR, animation, alpha, progressive decode, and can losslessly recompress existing JPEG files 20% smaller with bit-perfect roundtrip. It was designed by the JPEG committee as the format to end the format proliferation.

Then Google removed it from Chrome in February 2023, and its future became uncertain. Safari 17+ supports it. Firefox has it behind a flag. But without Chrome (65% of browser market share), web adoption is crippled. JPEG XL may still succeed for professional photography, printing, and archival — domains where browser support is irrelevant. But as a web format, it faces an uphill battle unless Google reverses course.

HEIC: Apple's Walled Garden

HEIC (HEVC-based image format) is the default on every iPhone, making it one of the most-produced image formats in the world. But HEVC's patent licensing mess (three competing patent pools with unclear terms) has prevented universal adoption outside Apple's ecosystem. Windows requires a paid codec extension. Android support is fragmented. Web browsers don't support it except Safari.

HEIC may gradually lose ground to AVIF, which offers comparable compression without patent baggage. Apple itself ships AVIF decoding since Safari 16.4. The question is whether Apple will ever switch the iPhone default from HEIC to AVIF — if they do, HEIC becomes a legacy format overnight. Until then, HEIC to JPG remains essential for cross-platform sharing.

WebP: Already Being Leapfrogged?

WebP achieved universal browser support in 2020 and is now the standard web image format. But AVIF already offers 20-30% better compression. WebP's position is "good enough" — it's universally supported, tools work well with it, and it's Google-backed. But technically, it's already the previous generation. WebP will likely remain relevant for 5-10 more years as the safe, universal choice while AVIF support matures.

The Five Macro Trends

Everything → web-native. Formats must work in browsers or they're niche. This is why AVIF (browser support) is winning over JPEG XL (no Chrome support) despite JXL being technically superior.
Proprietary → open → royalty-free. The industry has learned that patent-encumbered formats create vendor lock-in and legal risk. The AOM (Alliance for Open Media) model — big companies pooling patents into a royalty-free consortium — is the template going forward.
Binary → text → binary again. The 2000s-2010s pushed everything toward human-readable text formats (JSON, YAML, XML). The 2020s are swinging back toward efficient binary formats (Parquet, Arrow, Protobuf, MessagePack) as data volumes make text formats impractical.
Codec and container separation. Containers (MP4, MKV, WebM) are stable infrastructure that evolve slowly. Codecs (AV1, HEVC, VP9) change every 5-10 years. The trend is toward universal containers that accept any codec.
Compression approaches theoretical limits. AVIF and AV1 are within 10-15% of the theoretical limits for perceptual compression. Future gains will be incremental, not revolutionary. AV2 (in development) targets only 20-30% improvement over AV1.

The file format landscape in 2026 is surprisingly clear: AVIF for images, AV1 for video, Opus for audio, and open container formats (MP4, MKV) for everything. The patent-encumbered alternatives (HEIC, HEVC) will gradually lose relevance as the royalty-free options mature.

The practical advice: don't wait for format wars to conclude. Use JPEG and H.264 for maximum compatibility today. Use AVIF and AV1 when targeting modern platforms. Keep originals in lossless formats (PNG, FLAC, ProRes) so you can re-encode to whatever wins tomorrow. The only wrong move is creating new content in dying formats.

Key Takeaways

AVIF and AV1 are the clear winners of the next-gen format wars — royalty-free and backed by the entire industry
JPEG XL is technically the best image format ever made but faces death without Chrome support
BMP, AVI, FLV, WMV, WMA, and Flash/SWF are effectively dead — convert away from them
HEIC's future depends on Apple; if Apple adopts AVIF as default, HEIC becomes legacy
The trend toward binary formats (Parquet, Arrow, Protobuf) reverses the 2000s text-format era
Compression is approaching theoretical limits — expect 20-30% gains per generation, not 10x leaps

Frequently Asked Questions

Should I start using AVIF for my website images now?

Yes, with fallbacks. Use AVIF as the primary source in HTML picture elements with WebP and JPEG as fallbacks. All three major browsers support AVIF since Safari 16.4 (March 2023). The compression savings (50% smaller than JPEG) are significant enough to justify the slightly more complex HTML. CDNs like Cloudflare, Fastly, and CloudFront can auto-negotiate AVIF delivery.

Is JPEG going to die?

Not in our lifetime. JPEG is too deeply embedded in hardware, software, and workflows to disappear. Digital cameras, medical devices, printers, and billions of existing files ensure JPEG remains readable everywhere. What will change is that new web content will increasingly use AVIF or WebP, while JPEG becomes the compatibility fallback. Think of it like email — technically outdated, but irreplaceable.

Will JPEG XL succeed without Chrome support?

Partially. JPEG XL will likely find adoption in professional photography (its lossless JPEG recompression is unique), print workflows, and archival — domains where browser support doesn't matter. But as a web delivery format, it's effectively dead without Chrome. The only path to web success is Google reversing their removal decision, which seems unlikely given their investment in AVIF.

What will replace MP3?

Opus already has. For streaming, AAC and Opus handle music better than MP3 at the same bitrate. For downloads, FLAC is the standard for lossless. MP3 persists for the same reason JPEG does — universal compatibility. But new music services use AAC (Apple Music, YouTube Music) or Opus (Spotify web player). No one should be encoding new content as MP3 unless compatibility with very old devices is required.

Are there any new document formats on the horizon?

No. PDF (ISO 32000) and DOCX (ISO/IEC 29500) have effectively won the document format wars. PDF for fixed-layout distribution, DOCX for editable documents. Markdown is growing for technical writing and documentation but lacks standardization for complex formatting. The document space is stable — the innovation is in collaborative editing (Google Docs, Notion) rather than new file formats.

What should I archive my photos in for long-term preservation?

TIFF for maximum compatibility and institutional trust — it's the Library of Congress recommended format. PNG for lossless web-friendly archival. JPEG XL if you want maximum compression with lossless roundtrip capability. Avoid HEIC (patent-encumbered, uncertain future) and AVIF for archival (too new, specification still evolving). Keep camera RAW files alongside any processed versions.

Is WebP still worth using if AVIF is better?

Yes. WebP has near-universal support since 2020, mature encoding tools, and broad CDN support. AVIF is technically superior but encoding is slower and some edge cases (animation, very small images) still favor WebP. The practical approach: use AVIF for new content where encoding time isn't critical, keep WebP as the first fallback, and JPEG as the universal fallback.

Will we ever have one universal file format for images?

JPEG XL was designed to be exactly that — it handles every use case (lossy, lossless, HDR, animation, transparency, progressive decode). But even the best technical solution can't overcome ecosystem fragmentation. The realistic future is 2-3 formats coexisting: a legacy format (JPEG), a current-gen format (AVIF or WebP), and possibly a next-gen format (JXL or whatever follows). Convergence to one format would require unprecedented industry cooperation.

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